Large prediction market bets placed shortly before the release of two New York Times/Siena political polls raised questions about possible access to nonpublic information, according to a New York Times report cited by Cointelegraph.
Cointelegraph published its account on Nov. 7, 2026, at 17:10:35 UTC+8. Whether the trader had inside information remained unclear.
Nearly $200,000 wagered before a Nebraska poll
Vanderbilt University researchers identified a Polymarket user who bet almost $200,000 on Oct. 31 that Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts would be re-elected. A Times/Siena poll showing Ricketts ahead was released an hour later.
The Times reported on Friday that the user won more than $77,000. The report also said the user placed similarly large bets on other markets, including Kalshi.
“There’s a series of circumstances here that it’s hard to write it off as a random occurrence,” said Brett Goldstein of the Vanderbilt Institute of National Security. He said it “requires further investigation.”
Polymarket said it had detected the trades and was investigating. Kalshi declined to comment. The timing and size of the wagers prompted scrutiny, but the report did not establish that the trader possessed nonpublic information.
A separate case highlights information-integrity risks
Cointelegraph also referenced its April reporting on a US Army soldier charged after allegedly making more than $400,000 through prediction market bets using nonpublic information about a US operation involving then-Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
According to the Department of Justice, Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke participated in planning and executing Operation Absolute Resolve, which led to Maduro’s capture at a residence in Caracas, Venezuela, in January.
The DOJ alleged that Van Dyke used that information to buy “yes” shares in Polymarket contracts, including “Maduro out by January 31” and “Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31.” These were allegations, not findings of guilt.
The reported pre-poll wagers concern market integrity rather than evidence of broader adoption: the account provides individual bet amounts, but no platform-wide user counts, activity comparison or retention data.
