Cryptocurrency analytics firm Alphractal has expressed concern about Bitcoin’s recent market movements, noting the increase in leverage and the shift in whale positioning.
According to the firm’s latest statement, large-scale Bitcoin holders, commonly referred to as whales, began closing long positions and opening short positions after BTC briefly surpassed $87,000.
Alphractal noted that the Open Interest/Market Cap ratio is rising again, indicating that leverage in the market is increasing. Historically, such increases in leverage have preceded high volatility, potentially leading to mass liquidations. If this trend continues, Bitcoin investors could experience significant price swings in the coming weeks, analysts say.
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While Bitcoin remains a strong investment option, Alphractal noted that the days of astronomical returns are long gone. The firm provided a breakdown of Bitcoin’s Return on Investment (ROI) per cycle, showing a steady decline as the asset matures:
- 2009-2011: 4,830,000%
- 2011-2015: 55,000%
- 2015-2018: 8,500%
- 2018-2022: 2,000%
- 2022-2025: 560% (as of January 2025)
Despite this downward trend, Bitcoin’s performance still significantly outperforms traditional investment vehicles. In comparison, stocks and mutual funds typically offer annualized returns ranging from 5% to 10% under favorable market conditions. In comparison, Bitcoin’s 560% ROI in the current cycle equates to a 5.6x ROI.
Alphractal noted that Bitcoin is no longer a speculative “lottery ticket,” but remains a valuable asset for wealth preservation and long-term growth.
This is not investment advice.
