The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF market is experiencing a slowdown, with net outflows of $180 million over the past 30 days, one of the highest withdrawal rates since trading began in early 2024. The decline highlights a shift in investor sentiment amid market volatility and the collapse of cash-carry trading.
Bitcoin ETF Cash & Carry Trading Easing: What Does It Mean for Investors?
Compared to the enthusiasm seen in 2024, Bitcoin ETFs have underperformed in 2025, with inflows slowing significantly.
Bitcoin’s price has struggled, down about 10% year to date despite a brief $700 million net inflow surge over the past five days. Total net inflows since inception have reached $36.1 billion, according to Farside data.
Volatility and Fundamental Trading Deciphered
The two main factors that triggered this outburst are:
- Bitcoin’s extreme volatility: After reaching a record high of $109,000 in January following President Donald Trump’s inauguration and expectations for crypto-friendly policies, the price fell to $76,000 in early March amid fears over Trump’s tariff-based trade policies. Retail investors often react emotionally to such volatility and sell their assets in risky environments.
- The pullback from the fundamental trade: Institutional investors had been using cash-and-carry arbitrage, which involves taking short positions in CME Bitcoin futures to profit from the forward price premium over spot prices while taking long positions in Bitcoin ETFs. But many investors are exiting the trade, with arbitrage returns having fallen to just 2%, a record low since the ETF was approved.
With US Treasury bonds offering higher yields, many institutional investors are turning to lower-risk assets rather than continuing Bitcoin arbitrage transactions.
This is not investment advice.
