Veteran Analyst Offers ETH Price Forecast Following Launch of Ethereum ETFs in Early July
Cryptocurrency analyst Andrew Kang has shared his predictions for the price of Ethereum (ETH) following the introduction of Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Kang believes that while Bitcoin ETFs have attracted new buyers, the impact of Ethereum ETFs will be less certain. He pointed out that after the Blackrock ETF application, he predicted a bullish trend for Bitcoin at the $25,000 level, which has since seen a return of 2.6x. Similarly, Ethereum has delivered a return of 2.1x. Kang suggests that an ETH ETF may not provide significant advantages unless Ethereum can improve its economics in a compelling way.
Referencing estimates from Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas, Kang believes that Ethereum ETF flows could reach 10% of Bitcoin, resulting in actual net purchase flows of $0.5 billion and reported net flows of $1.5 billion within six months. Kang’s base case for ETH ETF flows is 15%, starting from Bitcoin’s true net worth of $5 billion, adjusting for Ethereum’s market cap being 33% of Bitcoin, and applying a reach factor of 0.5. This would lead to a true net worth of $0.84 billion and a reported net worth of $2.52 billion. Kang also presents an optimistic scenario with actual net worth of $1.5 billion and reported net worth of $4.5 billion, representing approximately 30% of Bitcoin flows.
In both cases, the actual net purchase is significantly lower than the futures ETF flows, which are estimated to be $2.4 billion. Kang believes this suggests that the ETF is currently overpriced. Despite this, Kang does not anticipate Ethereum dropping to zero. He expects the price of Ethereum to trade between $3,000 and $3,800 before the ETF launch, and between $2,400 and $3,000 after the launch. However, if Bitcoin reaches $100,000 in late Q4 2025, this could push Ethereum to new all-time highs, although the Ethereum/Bitcoin ratio may be lower.
Please note that this article does not constitute investment advice.
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