A report about Nvidia’s leadership prompted a sharp move in prediction-market pricing, but the trading activity does not establish whether a leadership change will occur.
According to BlockBeats, The Wall Street Journal reported after the U.S. stock market close that Nvidia’s board was preparing to replace Jensen Huang. After the report, the implied probability on a Polymarket market for a formal announcement of his resignation or removal by year-end rose from 26.5% to 77% in five minutes—a gain of 50.5 percentage points. BlockBeats said it later reached 92.5% before falling to about 83.5% near midday. Over the same period, an Nvidia contract on Hyperliquid briefly fell to $156.14.
Citing TradingBeats monitoring, BlockBeats reported that within four hours of the news, eight large traders active on both Polymarket and Hyperliquid had bought a combined approximately $102,000 in the Huang prediction market. Turnover in the year-end market was about $3.29 million over the preceding 24 hours, roughly 80% of its cumulative turnover.
The settlement condition matters: the market concerns whether a resignation or removal is formally announced before year-end, not necessarily whether Huang leaves the role by then. The reported odds reflect market pricing of that condition, rather than a confirmed outcome. The cross-market activity likewise shows participation, not verified arbitrage profits or durable growth in platform use.
Original report: BlockBeats, published November 12, 2026, at 12:26 p.m. UTC+8.